| | Introduction | p. 3 |
| | Two Systems | |
| | The Characters of the Story | p. 19 |
| | Attention and Effort | p. 31 |
| | The Lazy Controller | p. 39 |
| | The Associative Machine | p. 50 |
| | Cognitive Ease | p. 59 |
| | Norms, Surprises, and Causes | p. 71 |
| | A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions | p. 79 |
| | How Judgments Happen | p. 89 |
| | Answering an Easier Question | p. 97 |
| | Heuristics and Biases | |
| | The Law of Small Numbers | p. 109 |
| | Anchors | p. 119 |
| | The Science of Availability | p. 129 |
| | Availability, Emotion, and Risk | p. 137 |
| | Tom W's Specialty | p. 146 |
| | Linda: Less is More | p. 156 |
| | Causes Trump Statistics | p. 166 |
| | Regression to the Mean | p. 175 |
| | Taming Intuitive Predictions | p. 185 |
| | Overconfidence | |
| | The Illusion of Understanding | p. 199 |
| | The Illusion of Validity | p. 209 |
| | Intuitions vs. Formulas | p. 222 |
| | Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? | p. 234 |
| | The Outside View | p. 245 |
| | The Engine of Capitalism | p. 255 |
| | Choices | |
| | Bernoulli's Errors | p. 269 |
| | Prospect Theory | p. 278 |
| | The Endowment Effect | p. 289 |
| | Bad Events | p. 300 |
| | The Fourfold Pattern | p. 310 |
| | Rare Events | p. 322 |
| | Risk Policies | p. 334 |
| | Keeping Score | p. 342 |
| | Reversals | p. 353 |
| | Frames and Reality | p. 363 |
| | Two Selves | |
| | Two Selves | p. 377 |
| | Life as a Story | p. 386 |
| | Experienced Well-Being | p. 391 |
| | Thinking About Life | p. 398 |
| | Conclusions | p. 408 |
| | Judgment Under Uncertainty | p. 419 |
| | Choices, Values, and Frames | p. 433 |
| | Notes | p. 449 |
| | Acknowledgments | p. 483 |
| | Index | p. 485 |