Table of Contents
   Introductionp. 3
   Two Systems
      The Characters of the Storyp. 19
      Attention and Effortp. 31
      The Lazy Controllerp. 39
      The Associative Machinep. 50
      Cognitive Easep. 59
      Norms, Surprises, and Causesp. 71
      A Machine for Jumping to Conclusionsp. 79
      How Judgments Happenp. 89
      Answering an Easier Questionp. 97
   Heuristics and Biases
      The Law of Small Numbersp. 109
      Anchorsp. 119
      The Science of Availabilityp. 129
      Availability, Emotion, and Riskp. 137
      Tom W's Specialtyp. 146
      Linda: Less is Morep. 156
      Causes Trump Statisticsp. 166
      Regression to the Meanp. 175
      Taming Intuitive Predictionsp. 185
   Overconfidence
      The Illusion of Understandingp. 199
      The Illusion of Validityp. 209
      Intuitions vs. Formulasp. 222
      Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It?p. 234
      The Outside Viewp. 245
      The Engine of Capitalismp. 255
   Choices
      Bernoulli's Errorsp. 269
      Prospect Theoryp. 278
      The Endowment Effectp. 289
      Bad Eventsp. 300
      The Fourfold Patternp. 310
      Rare Eventsp. 322
      Risk Policiesp. 334
      Keeping Scorep. 342
      Reversalsp. 353
      Frames and Realityp. 363
   Two Selves
      Two Selvesp. 377
      Life as a Storyp. 386
      Experienced Well-Beingp. 391
      Thinking About Lifep. 398
   Conclusionsp. 408
   Judgment Under Uncertaintyp. 419
   Choices, Values, and Framesp. 433
   Notesp. 449
   Acknowledgmentsp. 483
   Indexp. 485