Kirkus
Copyright © Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.
A short course in how politicians, lawyers, advertisers and others use numbers to deceive.Seife (Journalism/New York Univ.; Sun in a Bottle: The Strange History of Fusion and the Science of Wishful Thinking, 2008, etc.) starts with Sen. Joseph McCarthy's claim that 207 communists were working in the State Department. The number changed over the following weeks, but once it was out there, people bought itthe apparent precision made it credible. The misuse of numbers and statistics is commonplace in our society, as the author demonstrates with plenty of absurd statistics that collapse under even the slightest examination. "Potemkin numbers"those invented to sell a preconceived ideaare just one variety of abuse; the inherent inexactness of measurement yields many bogus numbers. The 98.6 degrees "normal" body temperature is an average based on readings of armpit temperature, rarely used by modern medicine. Similarly misleading are wild extrapolations from current data. One journal published data showing that female marathoners would at some future date post faster times than men. But women began to run the race only recently, so their records reflect a much smaller sample. Extrapolated further, those same numbers show that women runners will eventually break the sound barrier. Polls are especially subject to error, writes Seife, due to the very nature of sampling. The vaunted "margin of error" is widely misunderstood, and can hide inaccuracies the pollsters would rather not admit to. Even elections are subject to miscounting, especially in close contests such as the 2008 Minnesota senatorial race. Stacking the deckfor example, gerrymandering election districtscan also yield results that defy the popular will. Seife favors no party, giving examples of how all segments of the political spectrum deal in bogus numbers when it fits their agenda. While nothing is likely to stop the merchandising of misleading statistics and Potemkin numbers, readers of this book will at least have some protection when the next slick huckster tries to bamboozle them with fancy figures.Sprightly written, despite its sobering message.]] Copyright Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.
Book list
From Booklist, Copyright © American Library Association. Used with permission.
*Starred Review* Following in the footsteps of John Allen Paulos (Innumeracy, 1989) and Michael Shermer (Why People Believe Weird Things, 1997), Seife conducts a thorough investigation into why so many of us find it so easy to believe things that are patently ridiculous. Why, for example, does anyone take seriously the idea that some vaccines can cause autism, or that athletes who wear red have a competitive advantage? It's all comes down to numbers, the author argues, and the ways they can be used to make people believe things that are not true. He introduces us to the concepts of Potemkin numbers (deliberately deceptive statistics), disestimation (turning a number into a falsehood by taking it too literally), fruit-packing (a variety of deceptive techniques including cherry-picking data and comparing apples to oranges), and randumbness (finding causality in random events). He explores the many ways we misunderstand simple mathematical terms confusing average, for example, with typical and our natural tendency to treat numbers as truth and to see patterns where none exist. Despite its serious and frequently complex subject, the book is written in a light, often humorous tone (the title is a riff on Stephen Colbert's truthiness, although proofiness has been in circulation for a while, with a variety of meanings). A delightful and remarkably revealing book that should be required reading for . . . well, for everyone.--Pitt, David Copyright 2010 Booklist
Publishers Weekly
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Science journalist Seife (Zero) borrows the title of his book from comedian Stephen Colbert's well-known term "truthiness." Seife defines proofiness as "the art of using bogus mathematical arguments to prove something that you know in your heart is true-even when it's not." He presents a rogue's gallery of shady figures: Potemkin numbers, or fabricated statistics, such as that a million people attended a rally when the real number is much smaller; disestimation, which means taking estimated numbers too literally, such as census results; and fruit packing, and in particular cherry picking, in which people ignore data that doesn't support their point of view. A central chapter analyzes the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate race and how the candidates manipulated the vote recount in a complex game of one-upmanship. Seife skewers much of the polling that is conducted continuously nowadays as well as the media's use of the numbers polls spit out. In an important chapter he dissects the justice system's often cynical misuse of data to obtain convictions. Seife presents the material in his typically outspoken style, producing a quick and enjoyable text for his wide base of readers. (Sept.) (c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved
Choice
Copyright American Library Association, used with permission.
According to Seife (science journalist; journalism, NYU), "proofiness" is the use of "bogus mathematical arguments" to deceive, often in the form of number-filled propaganda. The guilty users are politicians, advertisers, pollsters, and audience-hungry pundits. Through documented example after example, this text attempts to expose the negative effects of proofiness--thus the subtitle The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception. The author covers the expected topics, including phony facts, misleading numbers, correlation versus cause-effect, risk mismanagement, and poll misuse. But he also adds some new twists to the discussion: "randumbness," "casuistry," "regression to the moon," "tragedy of the commons," and "electile dysfunction." The author's important thesis is that proofiness is undermining democracy, with the susceptible public easy victims to overpowering, number-based arguments that approach the mystical. Three appendixes discuss statistical error, electronic voting, and the prosecutor's fallacy. Though an enjoyable and enlightening read, the book is disturbing; unfortunately, the people who either create proofiness or are misled by it will probably not read it. Summing Up: Recommended. All levels of academic and two-year technical program students, general readings, and professionals. J. Johnson Western Washington University